can someone help me understand how the following can be true:
1. TPU's are a serious competitor to nvidia chips.
2. Chip makers with the best chips are valued at 1-3.5T.
3. Google's market cap is 2T.
4. It is correct for google to not sell TPU's.
i have heard the whole, its better to rent them thing, but if they're actually good selling them is almost as good a business as every other part of the company.
Velorivox 9 hours ago [-]
Wall street undervalued Google even on day one (IPO). Bezos has said that some of the times the stock had been doing the worst were when the company was doing great.
So, to help you understand how they can be true: market cap is governed by something other than what a business is worth.
As an aside, here's a fun article that embarrasses wall street. [0]
> can someone help me understand how the following can be true
You're conflating price with intrinsic value with market analysis. All different things.
smokel 11 hours ago [-]
Selling them and supporting that in the field requires quite some infrastructure you'd have to build. Why go through all that trouble if you already make higher margins renting them out?
Also, if they are so good, it's best to not level the playing field by sharing that with your competitors.
Also "chip makers with the best chips" == Nvidia, there aren't many others. And Alphabet does more than just produce TPUs.
foota 17 minutes ago [-]
5. The efficient market hypothesis is true :-)
matt-p 2 hours ago [-]
AMD and even people like Huawei also make somewhat acceptable chips but using them is a bit of a nightmare. Is it a similar thing here? Using TPUs is more difficult, only exists inside Google cloud etc
roughly 6 hours ago [-]
Aside from the specifics of Nvidia vs Google, one thing to note regarding company valuations is that not all parts of the company are necessarily additive. As an example (read: a thing I’m making up), consider something like Netflix vs Blockbuster back in the early days - once Blockbuster started to also ship DVDs, you’d think it’d obviously be worth more than Netflix, because they’ve got the entire retail operation as well, but that presumes the retail operation is actually a long-term asset. If Blockbuster has a bunch of financial obligations relating to the retail business (leases, long-term agreements with shippers and suppliers, etc), it can very quickly wind up that the retail business is a substantial drag on Blockbuster’s valuation, as opposed to something that makes it more valuable.
michaelt 8 hours ago [-]
nvidia, who make AI chips with kinda good software support, and who have sales reflecting that, is worth 3.5T
google, who make AI chips with barely-adequate software, is worth 2.0T
AMD, who also make AI chips with barely-adequate software, is worth 0.2T
Google made a few decisions with TPUs that might have made business sense at the time, but with hindsight haven't helped adoption. They closely bound TPUs with their 'TensorFlow 1' framework (which was kinda hard to use) then they released 'TensorFlow 2' which was incompatible enough it was just as easy to switch to PyTorch, which has TPU support in theory but not in practice.
They also decided TPUs would be Google Cloud only. Might make sense, if they need water cooling or they have special power requirements. But it turns out the sort of big corporations that have multi-cloud setups and a workload where a 1.5x improvement in performance-per-dollar is worth pursuing aren't big open source contributors. And understandably, the academics and enthusiasts who are giving their time away for free aren't eager to pay Google for the privilege.
Perhaps Google's market cap already reflects the value of being a second-place AI chipmaker?
que-encrypt 3 hours ago [-]
jax is very much a working (and in my view better, aside from the lack of community) software support. Especially if you use their images (which they do). > > Tensorflow
They have been using jax/flax/etc rather than tensorflow for a while now. They don't really use pytorch from what I see on the outside from their research works. For instance, they released siglip/siglip2 with flax linen: https://github.com/google-research/big_vision
TPUs very much have software support, hence why SSI etc use TPUs.
I believe Broadcom is also very involved in the making of the TPU's and networking infrastructure and they are valued at 1.2T currently. Maybe consider the combined value of Broadcom and Google.
lftl 9 hours ago [-]
Wouldn't you also need to add TSMC to Nvidia's side in that case?
radialstub 7 hours ago [-]
Broadcom is fabless. I think they aid in hardware design, while google mostly does the software stack. Nvidia does both hardware and software stack.
santaboom 6 hours ago [-]
Not sure what you mean. Who do you think fabs broadcomm and google chips
lftl 4 hours ago [-]
Ah, I didn't realize broadcomm was fabless and only helping in design.
mft_ 10 hours ago [-]
If they think they’ve got a competitive advantage vs. GPUs which benefits one of their core products, it would make sense to retain that competitive advantage for the long term, no?
Uehreka 4 hours ago [-]
No. If they sell the TPUs for “what they’re worth”, they get to reap a portion of the benefit their competitors would get from them. There’s money they could be making that they aren’t.
Or rather, there would be if TPUs were that good in practice. From the other comments it sounds like TPUs are difficult to use for a lot of workloads, which probably leads to the real explanation: No one wants to use them as much as Google does, so selling them for a premium price as I mentioned above won’t get them many buyers.
jeffbee 8 hours ago [-]
Like other Google internal technologies, the amount of custom junk you'd need to support to use a TPU is pretty extreme, and the utility of the thing without the custom junk is questionable. You might as well ask why they aren't marketing their video compression cards.
dismalaf 10 hours ago [-]
Nvidia is selling a ton of chips on hype.
Google is saving a ton of money by making TPUs, which will pay off in the future when AI is better monetized, but so far no one is directly making a massive profit from foundation models. It's a long term play.
Also, I'd argue Nvidia is massively overvalued.
CalChris 8 hours ago [-]
Common in gold rushes but then they are selling chips. Are they overvalued? Maybe. Are they profitable (something WeWork and Uber aren't) ? Yes, quite.
santaboom 5 hours ago [-]
Good questions, below I attempt to respond to each point then wrap it up. TLDR: even if TPU is good (and it is good for Google) it wouldn’t be “almost as good a business as every other part of their company” because the value add isn’t FROM Google in the form of a good chip design(TPU). Instead the value add is TO Google in form of specific compute (ergo) that is cheap and fast FROM relatively simple ASICs(TPU chip) stitched together into massively complex systems (TPU super pods).
If interesting in further details:
1) TPUs are a serious competitor to Nvidia chips for Google’s needs, per the article they are not nearly as flexible as a GPU (dependence on precompiled workloads, high usage of PEs in systolic array). Thus for broad ML market usage, they may not be competitive with Nvidia gpu/rack/clusters.
2)chip makers with the best chips are not valued at 1-3.5T, per other comments to OC only Nvidia and Broadcomm are worth this much. These are not just “chip makers”, they are (the best) “system makers” driving designs for chips and interconnect required to go from a diced piece of silicon to a data center consuming MWs.
This part is much harder, this is why Google (who design TPU) still has to work with Broadcomm to integrate their solution.
Indeed every hyperscalar is designing chips and software for their needs, but every hyperscalar works with companies like Broadcomm or Marvell to actually create a complete competitive system.
Side note, Marvell has deals with Amazon, Microsoft and Meta to mostly design these systems they are worth “only” 66B.
So, you can’t just design chips to be valuable, you have to design systems. The complete systems have to be the best, wanted by everyone (Nvidia, Broadcomm) in order to be in Ts, otherwise you’re in Bs(Marvell).
4. I see two problems with selling TPU, customers and margins. If you want to sell someone a product, it needs to match their use, currently the use only matches Google’s needs so who are the customers? Maybe you want to capture hyperscalars / big AI labs, their use case is likely similar to google. If so, margins would have to be thin, otherwise they just work directly with Broadcomm/Marvell(and they all do). If Google wants everyone using cuda /Nvidia as a customer then you massively change the purpose of TPU and even Google.
To wrap up, even if TPU is good (and it is good for Google) it wouldn’t be “almost as good a business as every other part of their company” because the value add isn’t FROM Google in the form of a good chip design(TPU). Instead the value add is TO Google in form of specific compute (ergo) that is cheap and fast FROM relatively simple ASICs(TPU chip) stitched together into massively complex systems (TPU super pods).
Sorry that got a bit long winded, hope it’s helpful!
throwaway31131 14 minutes ago [-]
This also all assumes that there is excess foundry capacity in the world for Google to expand into, which is not obvious. One would need exceptionally good operations to compete here and that has never been Google's forte.
"Nvidia to consume 77% of wafers used for AI processors in 2025: Report...AWS, AMD, and Google lose wafer share."
rwmj 10 hours ago [-]
Aren't Google's TPUs a bit like a research project with practical applications as a nice side effect?
silentsea90 6 hours ago [-]
All of Google ML runs on TPUs tied to $ billions in revenue. You make it sound like TPUs are a Google X startup that's going to get killed tomorrow.
hackernudes 6 hours ago [-]
Why do you say that? They are on their seventh iteration of hardware and even from the beginning (according to the article) they were designed to serve Google AI needs.
My take is "sell access to TPUs on Google cloud" is the nice side effect.
surajrmal 6 hours ago [-]
On what basis do you make that claim? It's incredibly misleading and wrong.
Neywiny 8 hours ago [-]
What's not mentioned is a comparison vs FPGAs. You can have a systolic, fully pipelined system for any data processing not just vectorized SIMD. Every primitive is able to work independently of everything else. For example, if you have 240 DSP slices (which is far from outrageous on low scale), a perfect design could use those as 240 cores at 100% throughput. No memory, caching, decoding, etc overhead.
adrian_b 8 hours ago [-]
True, but FPGAs are suitable only for things that will not be produced in great numbers, because their cost and power consumption are many times higher than those of an ASIC.
For a company of the size of Google, the development costs for a custom TPU are quickly recovered.
Comparing a Google TPU with an FPGA is like comparing an injection-moulded part with a 3D-printed part.
Unfortunately, the difference in performance between FPGAs and ASICs has greatly increased in recent years, because the FPGAs have remain stuck on relatively ancient CMOS manufacturing processes, which are much less efficient than the state-of-the-art CMOS manufacturing processes.
cpgxiii 5 hours ago [-]
> True, but FPGAs are suitable only for things that will not be produced in great numbers, because their cost and power consumption are many times higher than those of an ASIC.
While common folk wisdom, this really isn't true. A surprising number of products ship with FPGAs inside, including ones designed to be "cheap". A great example of this is that Blackmagic, a brand known for being a "cheap" option in cinema/video gear, bases everything on Xilinx/AMD FPGAs (for some "software heavy" products they use the Xilinx/AMD Zynq line, which combines hard ARM cores with an FPGA). Pretty much every single machine vision camera on the market uses an FPGA for image processing as well. These aren't "one in every pocket" level products, but they are widely produced.
> Unfortunately, the difference in performance between FPGAs and ASICs has greatly increased in recent years, because the FPGAs have remain stuck on relatively ancient CMOS manufacturing processes
This isn't true either. At the high end, FPGAs are made on whatever the best process available is. Particularly in the top-end models that combine programmable fabric with hard elements, it would be insane not to produce them on the best process available. What is the big hindrance with FPGAs is that almost by definition the cell structures needed to produce programability are inherently more complex and less efficient than the dedicated circuits of an ASIC. That often means a big hit to maximum clock rate, with resulting consequences to any serial computation being performed.
santaboom 4 hours ago [-]
All very informative, I had some quibbles.
While it is true that cheap and expensive FPGAs exist, an FPGA system to replace TPU would not use a $0.50 or even $100 FPGA it would use a Versal or Ultrascale+ FPGA that costs thousands, compared to the (rough guess) $100/die you might spend for largest chip on most advanced process. Furthermore, overhead of FPGA means every single one my support a few million logic gates (maybe 2-5x if you use hardened blocks), compare to billions of transistors on largest chips in most advanced node —> cost per chip to buy is much much higher.
To the second point, afaik, leading edge Versal FPGAs are in 7nm, not ancient also not cutting edge used for asic(n3).
adrian_b 4 hours ago [-]
By high end I assume that you mean something like some of the AMD Versal series, which are made on a TSMC 7 nm process, like the AMD Zen 2 CPUs from 6 years ago.
While TSMC 7 nm is much better than what most FPGAs use, it is still ancient in comparison with what the current CPUs and GPUs use.
Moreover, I have never seen such FPGAs sold for less than thousands of $, i.e. they are much more expensive than GPUs of similar throughput.
Perhaps they are heavily discounted for big companies, but those are also the companies which could afford to design an ASIC with better energy efficiency.
I always prefer to implement an FPGA solution over any alternatives, but unfortunately much too often the FPGAs with high enough performance have also high enough prices to make them unaffordable.
The FPGAs with the highest performance that are still reasonably priced are the AMD UltraScale+ families, made with a TSMC 14 nm process, which is still good in comparison with most FPGAs, but nevertheless it is a decade old manufacturing process.
Neywiny 8 hours ago [-]
When you can ASIC, yes, do an ASIC. But my point was that there was a lot of GPU comparison. GPUs are also not ASICs relative to AI.
QuadmasterXLII 8 hours ago [-]
They’re close, they’re basically matmul asics
Neywiny 7 hours ago [-]
Arguably so are the DSP heavy FPGAs. And the unused logic will have a minimal static power draw relative to the unused but clocked G-only parts of the GPU.
daxfohl 4 hours ago [-]
I have to imagine google considered this and decided against it. I assume it's that all the high-perf matmul stuff needs to be ASIC'd out to get max performance, quality heat dissipation, etc. And for anything reconfigurable, a CPU-based controller or logic chip is sufficient and easier to maintain.
FPGA's kind of sit in this very niche middle ground. Yes you can optimize your logic so that the FPGA does exactly the thing that your use case needs, so your hardware maps more precisely to your use case than a generic TPU or GPU would. But what you gain in logic efficiency, you'll lose several times over in raw throughput to a generic TPU or GPU, at least for AI stuff which is almost all matrix math.
Plus, getting that efficiency isn't easy; FPGAs have a higher learning curve and a way slower dev cycle than writing TPu or GPU apps, and take much longer to compile and test than CUDA code, especially when they get dense and you have to start working around gate timing constraints and such. It's easy to get to a point where even a tiny change can exceed some timing constraint and you've got to rewrite a whole subsystem to get it to synthesize again.
c-c-c-c-c 8 hours ago [-]
fpga's are not expensive when ordered in bulk, the volume prices you see on mouser are way higher than the going rates.
monocasa 8 hours ago [-]
The actual cost of the part (within reason) doesn't matter all that much for a hyperscaler. The real cost is in the perf/watt, which an FPGA is around an order of magnitude worse for the same RTL.
RossBencina 16 hours ago [-]
Can you suggest a good reference for understanding which algorithms map well onto the regular grid systolic arrays used by TPUs? The fine article says dese matmul and convolution are good, but is there anything else? Eigendecomposition? SVD? matrix exponential? Solving Ax = b or AX = B? Cholesky?
cdavid 14 hours ago [-]
SVD/eigendecomposition will often boil down to making many matmul (e.g. when using Krylov-based methods, e.g. Arnoldi, Krylov-schur, etc.), so I would expect TPU to work well there. GMRES, one method to solve Ax = b is also based on Arnoldi decomp.
musebox35 16 hours ago [-]
I think https://jax-ml.github.io/scaling-book/ is one of the best references to go through. It details how single device and distributed computations map to TPU hardware features. The emphasis is on mapping the transformer computations, both forwards and backwards, so requires some familiarity with how transformer networks are structured.
WithinReason 16 hours ago [-]
Anything that you can express as 128x128 (but ideally much larger) dense matrix multiplication and nothing else
wkat4242 3 hours ago [-]
Haha I thought this was about 3D printing with thermostatic poly urethane. It's one of the harder materials to print and it also took me some time to get my head around it.
serf 16 hours ago [-]
does that cooling channel have a NEMA stepper on it as a pump or metering valve?[0]
Excellent write up, thank you. The benefits section was illustrative
b0a04gl 9 hours ago [-]
tpu's predictable latency under scale. when you control the compiler, the runtime, the interconnect and the chip, you eliminate so much variance that you can actually schedule jobs efficiently at data center scale. so the obvious question why haven't we seen anyone outside Google replicate this full vertical stack yet? is it because the hardware's hard or because no one has nailed the compiler/runtime contract at that scale?
> In essence, caches allow hardware to be flexible and adapt to a wide range of applications. This is a large reason why GPUs are very flexible hardware (note: compared to TPUs).
this is correct but mis-stated - it's not the caches themselves that cost energy but MMUs that automatically load/fetch/store to cache on "page faults". TPUs don't have MMUs and furthermore are a push architecture (as opposed to pull).
sgt101 13 hours ago [-]
ELI5: how (specifically) do GPU and TPU optimisations effect determinism in LLMs? Or is this all a myth?
barrkel 13 hours ago [-]
LLMs are generally deterministic. The token sampling step is usually randomized to some degree because it gets better results (creativity) and helps avoid loops, but you can turn that off (temp zero for simple samplers).
sgeisenh 9 hours ago [-]
This is an oversimplification. When distributed, the nondeterministic order of additions during reductions can produce nondeterministic results due to floating point error.
It’s nitpicking for sure, but it causes real challenges for reproducibility, especially during model training.
Der_Einzige 7 hours ago [-]
This belief (LLMs are deterministic except for samplers) is very wrong and will get you into hilariously large amounts of trouble for assuming it's true.
"For instance, under bfloat16 precision with greedy decoding, a reasoning model like DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B can exhibit up to 9% variation in accuracy and 9,000 tokens difference in response length due to differences in GPU count, type, and evaluation batch size. We trace the root cause of this variability to the non-associative nature of floating-point arithmetic under limited numerical precision. This work presents the first systematic investigation into how numerical precision affects reproducibility in LLM inference. Through carefully controlled experiments across various hardware, software, and precision settings, we quantify when and how model outputs diverge. Our analysis reveals that floating-point precision—while critical for reproducibility—is often neglected in evaluation practices."
marcinzm 3 hours ago [-]
Does this apply to TPUs or just GPUs?
sgt101 4 hours ago [-]
Great reference - thanks.
perching_aix 11 hours ago [-]
+ can also just pin the seed instead, right?
jpgvm 12 hours ago [-]
They don't affect determinism of the results but different architectures have different determinism guarantees with respect to performance, as a result of scheduling and other things.
TPUs share a similar lineage to the Groq TPU accelerators (disclaimer: I work at Groq) which are actually fully deterministic which means not only do you get deterministic output, you get it in a deterministic number of cycles.
There is a trade off though, making the hardware deterministic means you give up HW level scheduling and other sources of non-determinism. This makes the architecture highly dependent on a "sufficiently smart compiler". TPUs and processors like them are generally considered VLIW and are all similarly dependent on the compiler doing all the smart scheduling decisions upfront to ensure good compute/IO overlap and eliminating pipeline bubbles etc.
GPUs on the other hand have very sophisticated scheduling systems on the chips themselves along with stuff like kernel swapping etc that make them much more flexible, less dependent on the compiler and generally easier to reach a fairly high utilisation of the processor without too much work.
TLDR:
TPUs MAY have deterministic cycle guarantees.
GPUs (of the current generation/architectures) cannot because they use non-deterministic scheduling and memory access patterns.
Both still produce deterministic output for deterministic programs.
sgt101 4 hours ago [-]
This is gold dust. Thank you for taking the time to share your knowledge.
frays 15 hours ago [-]
How can someone have this level of knowledge about TPUs without working at Google?
ipsum2 14 hours ago [-]
Everything thats in the blog post is basically well known already. Google publishes papers and gives talks about their TPUs. Many details are lacking though, and require some assumptions/best guesses. Jax and XLA are (partially) open source and give clues about how TPUs work under the hood as well.
This is not the only way though. TPUs are available to companies operating on GCP as an alternative to GPUs with a different price/performance point. That is another way to get hands-on experience with TPUs.
It’s so ridiculous to see TPUs being compared to NVIDIA GPUs. IMO proprietary chips such as TPU had no future sure to the monopoly on the cloud services. There is no competition across the cloud services providers. The only way to access TPUs is through GCP.
As the result nobody wants to use them regardless of the technology. This is the biggest fault of GCP. Further the road, the gap between NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs (call it „moat“ or CUDA) is going to grow.
The opposite situation is with AMD which are avoiding the mistakes of Google.
My hope though is that AMD doesn’t start to compete with cloud service providers, e.g. by introducing their own cloud.
hiddencost 8 hours ago [-]
TPUs will thrive regardless of public adoption; Google's internal demand for TPU is such that they could buy every TPU ever produced.
roughly 5 hours ago [-]
One thing worth note here - TPUs are optimized for a fairly constrained set of operations. Google’s had good success with them, but, like many of the other Google architectural choices, this will constrain Google’s technical choice space in the future - if they’ve gone all in on TPUs, future Google machine learning projects will be using the sets of operations the TPUs excel at because that’s what Google has a lot of, not necessarily because that’s the optimal choice. This will have knock-on effects across the industry due to Google’s significant influence on industry practice and technical direction.
1. TPU's are a serious competitor to nvidia chips.
2. Chip makers with the best chips are valued at 1-3.5T.
3. Google's market cap is 2T.
4. It is correct for google to not sell TPU's.
i have heard the whole, its better to rent them thing, but if they're actually good selling them is almost as good a business as every other part of the company.
So, to help you understand how they can be true: market cap is governed by something other than what a business is worth.
As an aside, here's a fun article that embarrasses wall street. [0]
[0] https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna15536386
You're conflating price with intrinsic value with market analysis. All different things.
Also, if they are so good, it's best to not level the playing field by sharing that with your competitors.
Also "chip makers with the best chips" == Nvidia, there aren't many others. And Alphabet does more than just produce TPUs.
google, who make AI chips with barely-adequate software, is worth 2.0T
AMD, who also make AI chips with barely-adequate software, is worth 0.2T
Google made a few decisions with TPUs that might have made business sense at the time, but with hindsight haven't helped adoption. They closely bound TPUs with their 'TensorFlow 1' framework (which was kinda hard to use) then they released 'TensorFlow 2' which was incompatible enough it was just as easy to switch to PyTorch, which has TPU support in theory but not in practice.
They also decided TPUs would be Google Cloud only. Might make sense, if they need water cooling or they have special power requirements. But it turns out the sort of big corporations that have multi-cloud setups and a workload where a 1.5x improvement in performance-per-dollar is worth pursuing aren't big open source contributors. And understandably, the academics and enthusiasts who are giving their time away for free aren't eager to pay Google for the privilege.
Perhaps Google's market cap already reflects the value of being a second-place AI chipmaker?
TPUs very much have software support, hence why SSI etc use TPUs.
P.S. Google gives their tpus for free at: https://sites.research.google/trc/about/, which I've used for the past 6 months now
Or rather, there would be if TPUs were that good in practice. From the other comments it sounds like TPUs are difficult to use for a lot of workloads, which probably leads to the real explanation: No one wants to use them as much as Google does, so selling them for a premium price as I mentioned above won’t get them many buyers.
Google is saving a ton of money by making TPUs, which will pay off in the future when AI is better monetized, but so far no one is directly making a massive profit from foundation models. It's a long term play.
Also, I'd argue Nvidia is massively overvalued.
If interesting in further details:
1) TPUs are a serious competitor to Nvidia chips for Google’s needs, per the article they are not nearly as flexible as a GPU (dependence on precompiled workloads, high usage of PEs in systolic array). Thus for broad ML market usage, they may not be competitive with Nvidia gpu/rack/clusters.
2)chip makers with the best chips are not valued at 1-3.5T, per other comments to OC only Nvidia and Broadcomm are worth this much. These are not just “chip makers”, they are (the best) “system makers” driving designs for chips and interconnect required to go from a diced piece of silicon to a data center consuming MWs. This part is much harder, this is why Google (who design TPU) still has to work with Broadcomm to integrate their solution. Indeed every hyperscalar is designing chips and software for their needs, but every hyperscalar works with companies like Broadcomm or Marvell to actually create a complete competitive system. Side note, Marvell has deals with Amazon, Microsoft and Meta to mostly design these systems they are worth “only” 66B. So, you can’t just design chips to be valuable, you have to design systems. The complete systems have to be the best, wanted by everyone (Nvidia, Broadcomm) in order to be in Ts, otherwise you’re in Bs(Marvell).
4. I see two problems with selling TPU, customers and margins. If you want to sell someone a product, it needs to match their use, currently the use only matches Google’s needs so who are the customers? Maybe you want to capture hyperscalars / big AI labs, their use case is likely similar to google. If so, margins would have to be thin, otherwise they just work directly with Broadcomm/Marvell(and they all do). If Google wants everyone using cuda /Nvidia as a customer then you massively change the purpose of TPU and even Google.
To wrap up, even if TPU is good (and it is good for Google) it wouldn’t be “almost as good a business as every other part of their company” because the value add isn’t FROM Google in the form of a good chip design(TPU). Instead the value add is TO Google in form of specific compute (ergo) that is cheap and fast FROM relatively simple ASICs(TPU chip) stitched together into massively complex systems (TPU super pods).
Sorry that got a bit long winded, hope it’s helpful!
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...
"Nvidia to consume 77% of wafers used for AI processors in 2025: Report...AWS, AMD, and Google lose wafer share."
My take is "sell access to TPUs on Google cloud" is the nice side effect.
For a company of the size of Google, the development costs for a custom TPU are quickly recovered.
Comparing a Google TPU with an FPGA is like comparing an injection-moulded part with a 3D-printed part.
Unfortunately, the difference in performance between FPGAs and ASICs has greatly increased in recent years, because the FPGAs have remain stuck on relatively ancient CMOS manufacturing processes, which are much less efficient than the state-of-the-art CMOS manufacturing processes.
While common folk wisdom, this really isn't true. A surprising number of products ship with FPGAs inside, including ones designed to be "cheap". A great example of this is that Blackmagic, a brand known for being a "cheap" option in cinema/video gear, bases everything on Xilinx/AMD FPGAs (for some "software heavy" products they use the Xilinx/AMD Zynq line, which combines hard ARM cores with an FPGA). Pretty much every single machine vision camera on the market uses an FPGA for image processing as well. These aren't "one in every pocket" level products, but they are widely produced.
> Unfortunately, the difference in performance between FPGAs and ASICs has greatly increased in recent years, because the FPGAs have remain stuck on relatively ancient CMOS manufacturing processes
This isn't true either. At the high end, FPGAs are made on whatever the best process available is. Particularly in the top-end models that combine programmable fabric with hard elements, it would be insane not to produce them on the best process available. What is the big hindrance with FPGAs is that almost by definition the cell structures needed to produce programability are inherently more complex and less efficient than the dedicated circuits of an ASIC. That often means a big hit to maximum clock rate, with resulting consequences to any serial computation being performed.
While it is true that cheap and expensive FPGAs exist, an FPGA system to replace TPU would not use a $0.50 or even $100 FPGA it would use a Versal or Ultrascale+ FPGA that costs thousands, compared to the (rough guess) $100/die you might spend for largest chip on most advanced process. Furthermore, overhead of FPGA means every single one my support a few million logic gates (maybe 2-5x if you use hardened blocks), compare to billions of transistors on largest chips in most advanced node —> cost per chip to buy is much much higher.
To the second point, afaik, leading edge Versal FPGAs are in 7nm, not ancient also not cutting edge used for asic(n3).
While TSMC 7 nm is much better than what most FPGAs use, it is still ancient in comparison with what the current CPUs and GPUs use.
Moreover, I have never seen such FPGAs sold for less than thousands of $, i.e. they are much more expensive than GPUs of similar throughput.
Perhaps they are heavily discounted for big companies, but those are also the companies which could afford to design an ASIC with better energy efficiency.
I always prefer to implement an FPGA solution over any alternatives, but unfortunately much too often the FPGAs with high enough performance have also high enough prices to make them unaffordable.
The FPGAs with the highest performance that are still reasonably priced are the AMD UltraScale+ families, made with a TSMC 14 nm process, which is still good in comparison with most FPGAs, but nevertheless it is a decade old manufacturing process.
FPGA's kind of sit in this very niche middle ground. Yes you can optimize your logic so that the FPGA does exactly the thing that your use case needs, so your hardware maps more precisely to your use case than a generic TPU or GPU would. But what you gain in logic efficiency, you'll lose several times over in raw throughput to a generic TPU or GPU, at least for AI stuff which is almost all matrix math.
Plus, getting that efficiency isn't easy; FPGAs have a higher learning curve and a way slower dev cycle than writing TPu or GPU apps, and take much longer to compile and test than CUDA code, especially when they get dense and you have to start working around gate timing constraints and such. It's easy to get to a point where even a tiny change can exceed some timing constraint and you've got to rewrite a whole subsystem to get it to synthesize again.
If so, wild. That seems like overkill.
[0]: https://henryhmko.github.io/posts/tpu/images/tpu_tray.png
this is correct but mis-stated - it's not the caches themselves that cost energy but MMUs that automatically load/fetch/store to cache on "page faults". TPUs don't have MMUs and furthermore are a push architecture (as opposed to pull).
It’s nitpicking for sure, but it causes real challenges for reproducibility, especially during model training.
Also greedy sampling considered harmful: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09501
From the abstract:
"For instance, under bfloat16 precision with greedy decoding, a reasoning model like DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B can exhibit up to 9% variation in accuracy and 9,000 tokens difference in response length due to differences in GPU count, type, and evaluation batch size. We trace the root cause of this variability to the non-associative nature of floating-point arithmetic under limited numerical precision. This work presents the first systematic investigation into how numerical precision affects reproducibility in LLM inference. Through carefully controlled experiments across various hardware, software, and precision settings, we quantify when and how model outputs diverge. Our analysis reveals that floating-point precision—while critical for reproducibility—is often neglected in evaluation practices."
TPUs share a similar lineage to the Groq TPU accelerators (disclaimer: I work at Groq) which are actually fully deterministic which means not only do you get deterministic output, you get it in a deterministic number of cycles.
There is a trade off though, making the hardware deterministic means you give up HW level scheduling and other sources of non-determinism. This makes the architecture highly dependent on a "sufficiently smart compiler". TPUs and processors like them are generally considered VLIW and are all similarly dependent on the compiler doing all the smart scheduling decisions upfront to ensure good compute/IO overlap and eliminating pipeline bubbles etc.
GPUs on the other hand have very sophisticated scheduling systems on the chips themselves along with stuff like kernel swapping etc that make them much more flexible, less dependent on the compiler and generally easier to reach a fairly high utilisation of the processor without too much work.
TLDR: TPUs MAY have deterministic cycle guarantees. GPUs (of the current generation/architectures) cannot because they use non-deterministic scheduling and memory access patterns. Both still produce deterministic output for deterministic programs.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.01433
https://jax-ml.github.io/scaling-book/
This is not the only way though. TPUs are available to companies operating on GCP as an alternative to GPUs with a different price/performance point. That is another way to get hands-on experience with TPUs.
The opposite situation is with AMD which are avoiding the mistakes of Google.
My hope though is that AMD doesn’t start to compete with cloud service providers, e.g. by introducing their own cloud.